000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181510
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W/90W and N of 05N, moving
west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in 
association with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W/100W and N of 05N, 
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 98W and 101W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between
99W and 102W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 04N to 17N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
12N to 15N between 112W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to
1010 mb low pressure near 10N76W to 11N95W to 09N104W to 10N120W
to 13N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 82W, and from
08N to 14N between 128W and 139W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 07N between 84W and 90W, and from 07N to 10N
between 101W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging extends across the waters west of Baja 
California with moderate to fresh winds there. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere offshore of Mexico. Seas are mainly in
the 4 to 6 ft range in a mixed of S and NW swell, except 2 to 4
ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, surface ridging west of California will 
promote moderate to fresh NW winds along the west coast of Baja 
California this weekend. NW swell will build seas west of Baja 
California Norte Mon night through Tue night. A Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Tue night and may bring 
near-gale conditions on Wed and Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of 04N, with
moderate S-SW winds south of 04N. A SW swell is promoting seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range across the equatorial waters and 5 to 6 ft
across the Central American waters. 

For the forecast, moderate SW swell across the equatorial waters
will diminish Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through the remainder of the weekend. Otherwise, 
tranquil conditions should prevail through Wed night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is noted from 30N119W to 26N124W. Another
surface trough is noted from 20N123W to 14N126W. Otherwise,
broad surface ridging prevails across the open waters north of
the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate trades are noted north
of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow
south of the convergence zone. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in a mix of S
and NW swell across the open waters, except 6 to 8 ft south of 
05N between 95W and 120W.

For the forecast, little change in winds across the basin is 
anticipated and no tropical cyclone activity is expected through 
the next several days. The moderate SW swell across the 
equatorial waters will diminish by Sun. A moderate NW swell may 
reach our northern border on Mon and Tue, subsiding Wed.

$$
Lewitsky