923 AXPZ20 KNHC 162144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 05N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 10N between 88W and 98W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W north of 10N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N to 18N between 104W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N98W then resumes near 12N110W and continues along 12N123W to 09N135W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N E of 88W, 08N to 13N between 119W and 125W, and from 07N to 12N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. However, locally fresh winds are still possible this evening along the coastal waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas remain in the 5 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere over the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range as indicated by recent altimeter data. In the Gulf of California, winds are also light to gentle and variable, but with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, will be dominant across the waters west of Baja California through Mon late in the afternoon when winds will diminish to light to gentle. However, seas will remain in the 5 to 6 ft range due to long period SW swell combining with long period N swell early next week. SE winds will develop along the Gulf of California tonight and will continue through Fri night. Moderate southerly winds will resume along the gulf on Mon and diminish again Mon night. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue next week with seas to 5 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southerly flow dominate across much of the forecast waters S of 09N with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range in SW swell, except for 8 ft to the E of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle variable winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are over the remainder offshore zones N of 09N. For the forecast, SW swell across the region will subside early on Fri. A second round of SW swell will move across the area during the weekend through early next week, which will sustain seas to 6 ft across the area with mainly moderate southerly winds S of 10N. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Papagayo region Fri through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough prevails from 12N to 18N near 124W. Surface ridging is to the N and W of this trough, which is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to nearly 23N. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range over this region according to recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range, except for 8 ft E of the Galapagos Islands. These conditions are forecast to remain within the forecast period through early next week. Otherwise, a cold front may stall just north of 30N early next week while associated NW swell builds seas to around 8 ft along and near 30N just W of the Baja California offshore waters. $$ Ramos