000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162047
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 05N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of
10N between 88W and 98W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W north of 10N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N to 18N 
between 104W and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N98W then resumes
near 12N110W and continues along 12N123W to 09N135W. Aside from 
convection discussed in the tropical wave section above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N E of 88W,
08N to 13N between 119W and 125W, and from 07N to 12N W of 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5-6 ft remain west 
of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle variable winds
and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere over the S and SW Mexico
offshore waters with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. In the Gulf of
California, winds are also light to gentle and variable, but with
seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, 
will be dominant across the waters west of Baja California the 
next several days. Southerly winds will pulse to fresh in the 
northern Gulf of California through the next several days. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. SW swell across the area 
will continue to subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, NW
swell may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte by 
early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly flow dominate across much of the 
forecast waters S of 07N with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range in SW 
swell, except 3 to 5 ft in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands.
Light to gentle variable winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are over the
remainder offshore zones N of 07N.  

For the forecast, SW swell across the region will continue to  
subside through end of the week. Winds over the Papagayo region 
will pulse to moderate to fresh at night during the upcoming 
weekend, increasing to fresh to strong briefly on Sat night. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed from a 1010 mb low near 14N124W to
20N122W. Surface ridging is to the N and W of this area of low
pressure, which is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds N of the monsoon trough to nearly 27N. Seas are in the 5 to
6 ft range over this region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
dominate elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally 
in the 5-7 ft range, except for 8 ft E of 100W.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to gradually 
diminish and subside across the region through the rest of the
week into the weekend. Winds may increase by the end of the 
weekend from 12N to 21N and west of 125W as the surface trough
and low progress westward. A cold front may stall just north of 
30N early next week while associated NW swell builds seas to 
around 8 ft along and near 30N.

$$
Ramos