000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 07N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N 
of 10N between 88W and 91W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 07N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
N of 10N between 93W and 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 16N104W to a 1010 mb 
low pressure near 14N124W to 10N138W. Aside from convection 
discussed in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 82W and 87W, 14N to 
19N between 106W and 110W, and from 08N to 12N W of 119W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5-6 ft remain west 
of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle variable winds
and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere over the S and SW Mexico
offshore waters with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. In the Gulf of
California, winds are also light to gentle and variable, but with
seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, 
will be dominant across the waters west of Baja California the 
next several days. Southerly winds will pulse to fresh in the 
northern Gulf of California through the next several days. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. SW swell across the area 
will continue to subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, NW
swell may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte by 
early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails across much of the
forecast waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in SW swell, 
except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, SW swell across the region will continue to  
subside through end of the week. Winds over the Papagayo region 
will pulse to moderate to fresh at night during the upcoming 
weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary surface trough is analyzed from 19N122W to 
10N123W, while a 1012 mb low pressure area is near 14N123W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 10B as well as N of 10N
and west of 130W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are generally in the 5-7 ft range, locally to 8 ft E of 100W.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to gradually 
diminish and subside across the region through the rest of the
week into the weekend. Winds may increase by the end of the 
weekend from 12N to 21N and west of 125W as the surface trough
and low progress westward. A cold front may stall just north of 
30N early next week while associated NW swell builds seas to 
around 8 ft along and near 30N.

$$
Ramos