000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160840
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W/88W north of 04N, moving
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 85W and 90W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 04N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 13N between 98W and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N101W to 10N128W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to 10N140W. Aside from convection 
discussed in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 119W
and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail west 
of Baja California. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft are
noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or
less are in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, 
will prevail across the waters west of Baja California the next 
several days. Southerly winds will pulse to fresh in the northern
Gulf of California through the next several days. Light to 
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. SW swell across the area 
will continue to subside through the end of the week. NW swell 
may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte by early next
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails across much of the
forecast waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in SW swell, 
except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, SW swell across the region will continue to  
subside through end of the week. Winds over the Papagayo region 
will pulse to moderate to fresh at night during the upcoming 
weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary surface trough is analyzed from 19N122W to 
10N123W, while a 1012 mb low pressure area is near 14N123W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 10B as well as N of 10N
and west of 130W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are generally in the 5-7 ft range, locally to 8 ft E of 100W.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to gradually 
diminish and subside across the region through the rest of the
week into the weekend. Winds may increase by the end of the 
weekend from 12N to 21N and west of 125W as the surface trough
and low progress westward. A cold front may stall just north of 
30N early next week while associated NW swell builds seas to 
around 8 ft along and near 30N.

$$
AL