000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151923 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W north of 04N to across Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 86W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of 04N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 93W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to across western Panama and Costa Rica to along the coast of Mexico near 17N100W to 13N116W to 1013 mb low pressure near 14N122W to 13N124W. The ITCZ continues from 13N124W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 108W and 111W, and from 08N to 13N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of Baja California with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in SW swell prevail across the open waters, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. A surface trough is just west of Cabo Corrientes from 24N106W to 19N107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 105W and 108W, producing heavy rainfall along the coast and just inland. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, will prevail across the waters west of Baja California the next several days. Southerly winds will pulse to fresh in the northern Gulf of California through the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. SW swell across the area will continue to subside through the end of the week. NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte by early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in SW swell, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, SW swell across the region will continue to subside through end of the week. Winds over the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to fresh at night during the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A nearly stationary surface trough is analyzed from 23N123W to 18N123W, while a 1013 mb low pressure area is near 14N122W. Isolated to widely scattered showers are near these features. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the convergence zone. North of the convergence zone, gentle to moderate winds are west of 130W, locally fresh from 10N to 20N, with light to gentle east of 130W. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range across the open waters, locally to 8 ft. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish and subside across the region through the rest of the week into the weekend. Winds may increase by the end of the weekend from 12N to 21N and west of 125W as the surface trough and low progress westward into a broad ridge. A cold front may stall just north of 30N early next week while associated NW swell builds seas to around 8 ft along and near 30N. $$ Lewitsky