000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151453
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W north of 04N to across 
Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua, moving west at around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 09N between 78W and 84W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W north of 04N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 92W and 97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to
across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N86W to 18N105W to 13N115W to
1012 mb low pressure near 14N122W to 10N128W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 108W and 110W, and
from 07N to 13N between 136W and 140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 97W and 101W, and
from 09N to 11N between 120W and 124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft in SW swell
prevail across the open waters, with light to gentle winds and
seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, except 3 to 5 ft
near the entrance. A surface trough is just west of Cabo
Corrientes from 23N105W to 20N108W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 24N between 104W
and 108W, producing very heavy rainfall along the coast and just
inland.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, 
will prevail across the waters west of Baja California the next 
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. SW 
swell across the area will continue to subside through the end of
the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters north of
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range in SW
swell, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, SW swell across the region will continue to  
subside through end of the week. Winds over the Papagayo region 
will pulse to moderate to fresh at night during the upcoming 
weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary surface trough is analyzed from 23N122W to 
18N123W with isolated showers near the trough. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the convergence 
zone. North of the convergence zone, gentle to moderate winds are
west of 130W, locally fresh from 10N to 21N, with light to 
gentle east of 130W. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range across the 
open waters, locally to 8 ft.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to gradually 
diminish and subside across the region through the rest of the 
into the weekend. Winds may increase by the end of the weekend
from 12N to 21N and west of 125W as the surface trough 
progresses westward into a broad ridge.

$$
Lewitsky