000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W north of 03N to across western Panama and into the Caribbean Sea, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 77W and 84W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W/93W north of 04N, moving slowly west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 93W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to near the Papagayo region at 11N86W to 16.5N100W to 17N107W, then resumes from 17.5N109W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N121W to 10N124W. The ITCZ continues from 10N124W to 08N134W, then resumes from 08N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 22N between 100W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 109W and 117W, and from 07N to 09N between 128W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Very heavy rainfall in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms is occurring along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero west-northwestward to Jalisco. Flash flooding and mudslides may be possible. Please refer to your national meteorological service for details. Moderate to fresh, locally strong in the convection mentioned above, winds are offshore of Guerrero and Oaxaca. Moderate southerly winds are in the central and northern Gulf of California, with moderate SW winds south of the monsoon trough off southern Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. A large area of SW swell is impacting the coast and the waters off southern Mexico, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico in a mix of SW and northerly swell. Over the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, winds offshore of Michoacan and Oaxaca will diminish tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters the next several days, locally fresh west of Baja California by mid-week. Large SW swell will move across the waters off southern Mexico through mid-week. Seas will reach near 8 ft off Baja California through mid-week in a mix of NW and S swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters, along with seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range. For the forecast, large SW swell across the region will subside by the end of the week into the weekend, while with gentle to moderate winds prevail. Winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to fresh at night during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and west of 105W. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range across much of the area south of 15N and east of 117W, mainly due to local wind flow and persistent cross-equatorial southerly swell. NW to N swell is supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 26N between 120W and 129W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere, locally fresh north of the ITCZ to 15N and west of 130W. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish and subside across the region through the week and into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky