000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141505
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W north of 02N to across
Panama and into the Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
03N to 08N between 77W and 80W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W/92W north of 05N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 91W and 99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to 17N110W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 13N120W to 10N126W. The ITCZ continues from 10N126W
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 150 nm of the coast of Mexico between 98W and 107W.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 
12N between 101W and 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of southern Mexico as
well as west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. A large area of SW swell is impacting 
the waters off southern Mexico, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft 
range. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range over the remainder of the
open waters off Mexico in a mix of SW and northerly swell. Over 
the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the offshore waters the next several days, locally fresh west of 
Baja California by mid-week, and also locally fresh within 20 nm
of the coast from Michoacan to Oaxaca. Large SW swell will move 
across the waters off southern Mexico through mid-week. Seas 
will reach near 8 ft off Baja California through mid-week in a 
mix of NW and S swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate prevail over the offshore waters, along with
seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. 

For the forecast, large SW swell across the region will subside 
by the end of the week into the weekend, while with gentle to 
moderate winds prevail.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough and west of 100W. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range
across much of the area south of 15N and east of 120W, mainly due
to local wind flow and persistent cross-equatorial southerly 
swell. NW to N swell is supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 25N
between 120W and 130W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across 
the region through the week and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky