093 AXPZ20 KNHC 130842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure is located a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the couple of days while it moves westward or west-northwestward just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. There is a medium chance that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W north of 02N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 83W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N98W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 90W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 98W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 104W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an area of low pressure with the potential for developing into a tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail south of southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of Baja California Norte. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. A large area of SW swell is impacting the waters off southern Mexico, with seas in the 8-12 ft range. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico in a mix of SW and northerly swell. Over the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, in addition to the potential for development of low pressure along the coast of Mexico, the main issue will be the SW swell moving across the region through mid week. The SW swell will cause rough seas off southern Mexico with the potential for hazardous surf along the coast through the early part of the week. Seas will reach 8 ft off Baja California through midweek in a mix of NW and S swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate prevail over the offshore waters along with 6 to 9 ft seas in SW swell. For the forecast, large SW swell will impact region into early next week, along with moderate winds. Seas will subside through the latter part of the week across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad swath of fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail within 360 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 115W. Seas are in excess of 8 ft across much of the area south of 15N and east of 120W, with maximum seas of 11 ft from 06N to 13N between 95W and 105W mainly due to local wind flow and persistent cross- equatorial southerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through mid week. $$ AL