000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130120
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A small area of low pressure located near the southern coast of 
Mexico just to the west-southwest of Puerto Escondido is producing 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A tropical 
depression could still form during the next day or so if the 
system remains over water while it moves westward or west-
northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of 
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across 
portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. There is a medium
chance that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone. 
Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather 
Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W north of 02N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 12N between 80W and 90W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1007 mb low pressure 
near 15.5N97W to 09N132W. ITCZ from 09N132W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N
between 90W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
an area of low pressure with the potential for developing into a
tropical cyclone.

In addition to strong to near-gale force winds off Chiapas and
Oaxaca, seas are reaching near 12 ft, due mostly to long- period
SW swell propagating into the region. Farther north, gentle to 
moderate winds around the remnant low of Olaf near 23N116W.

For the forecast, in addition to the potential for development of
low pressure along the coast of Mexico, the main issue will be
the SW swell moving into the region through mid week. Seas may
reach 8 ft off Baja California through Mon night in a mix of NW
and S swell. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh SW winds prevail over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador, along with 6 to 9 ft seas in SW swell. Farther 
south, gentle to moderate southerly winds persist off Colombia 
and Ecuador, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, large SW swell will impact region into early 
next week, along with moderate winds. Seas will subside through 
the latter part of the week across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad swath of fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail within
360 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 115W. Seas are in 
excess of 8 ft across much of the area south of 15N and east of 
120W, with maximum seas of 12 to 13 ft from 06N to 13N between 
95W and 105W mainly due to local wind flow and persistent cross- 
equatorial southerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas are noted elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish across 
the region through mid week.

$$
AL