000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110858
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Olaf has degenerated into a remnant low, and 
is centered near 24.4N 114.0W at 11/0900 UTC moving W at 5 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Max seas are peaking 
near 11 ft. There is no significant convection near the center 
of Olaf. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Pacific with axis 
near 94W. A broad area of low pressure is developing along the 
wave a couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for some 
development of this system if it remains over water, and a 
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next 
week while moving west- northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the 
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of 
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next 
few days. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclogenesis 
within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern north 
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is evident from 07N to 15N between 90W and 100W. Low pressure
developing along the tropical wave will be monitored for the 
potential for tropical cyclogenesis. Please see Special Features
section above for more information.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W/106W north of 05N to 
18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 100W and 
110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N91W to 08N130W. 
Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted east of
80W and from 04N to 12N between 80W and 90W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 08N to 10N between 110W and 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf, and a developing area of low 
pressure with the potential for developing into a tropical 
cyclone.

Fresh to strong N gap winds are pulsing across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, in response to a tightening pressure gradient with a
developing area of low pressure south of the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec. Long- period SW swell is also impacting the waters 
off Chiapas and eastern Oaxaca, reaching 5 to 7 ft, along with 
clusters of showers and thunderstorms. SW swell is also impacting
most of the remaining open waters off southern Mexico, with 
mostly 5 to 6 ft seas. Farther north, Tropical Depression Olaf 
has weakened to a remnant low. Winds and seas will continue to 
decrease today. Moderate SE winds and slight seas are noted 
across the Gulf of California. Outside of the immediate area of 
Olaf, gentle to moderate NW winds persist off Baja California, 
with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is developing a 
couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for some 
development of this system if it remains over water, and a 
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next 
week while moving west- northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the 
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of 
development, southwest swell will build seas off southern Mexico 
through early next week. Coastal areas in southern Mexico from 
Chiapas to Guerrero may see hazard surf and heavy rainfall Sat 
through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh SW winds prevail over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range off Guatemala and 
El Salvador in SW swell. Farther south, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds persist off Colombia and Ecuador, with seas of 6 
to 8 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, large SW swell will impact region into early 
next week, along with moderate winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A large area of moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of
10N and east of 115W. Seas to 8 ft prevail over much of the 
tropical waters east of 120W, partly due the local wind flow, but
also due in part to a larger area of cross- equatorial SW swell.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds persist west of 120W, with seas 
to 8 ft in southerly swell reaching as far west as 130W south of 
08N and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Southwest swell will continue 
to propagate through the waters east of 130W through the upcoming
weekend, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft through early next 
week.

$$
AL