000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Olaf is centered near 23.7N 110.7W at 10/0900 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 21N to 26W between 107W and 112W. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula today, bringing heavy rains across portions of southern Baja California Sur. The heavy rains will bring the threat of significant and life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Olaf is forecast to turn westward by Sat morning and then southwestward Sun into early next week. Olaf's proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula today will likely result in steady weakening, with winds forecast to fall below hurricane force by this evening. The storm will then move over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius tonight, which should bring additional weakening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W/88W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 86W and 92W. This tropical wave will be monitored over the next several days for the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W north of 03N to inland southwestern Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 100W to 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 14N99W to 10N117W to 09N130W. Aside from the convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 103W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Olaf. Aside from Olaf, fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-7 ft are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern prevails producing gentle to moderate winds west of Baja California and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Hurricane Olaf near 23.7N 110.7W 981 mb at 2 AM PDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Olaf will move to 24.4N 111.9W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.7N 113.3W Sat morning, 24.5N 114.5W Sat afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 23.9N 115.6W Sun morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 23.0N 116.9W Sun afternoon. A tropical wave is in the far eastern Pacific waters. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and the low could then develop further into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough with light winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the Central American offshore waters, with 6-8 ft seas over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands in southwest swell. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are expected over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sat through late Sun as low pressure develops south of the southern coast of Mexico. Seas offshore Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are expected to build this weekend due to strong south to southwest winds combining with southwest swell that will be propagating through those same offshore waters. These seas will begin to slowly subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 15N136W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the low, with gentle to moderate winds south of the low. Another area of low pressure is centered near 24N130W. This is a weaker low with a pressure of 1014 mb, supporting gentle winds around the low. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of 10N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 10N. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in the vicinity of the low, and 4-5 ft elsewhere north of 10N. South of 10N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range east of 115W, and 5-6 ft west of 115W. Southwest swell will propagate through the waters E of 130W through the upcoming weekend, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft through early next week. $$ AL