000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Olaf is centered near 22.2N 108.9W at 09/2100 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Satellite imagery continue to show wide banding features containing deep convective activity. This convective activity is observed as the numerous moderate and strong type intensity within 180 nm of the center in the NE and NW quadrant, and scattered moderate and strong convection is within 100 nm in the southern semicircle. Presently maximum seas reach a peak of 23 ft but are forecast to build tonight through Fri as the cyclone approaches southern Baja California. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Weakening is expected on Friday after Olaf begins to interact with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend. Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W/87W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 84W and 90W. This tropical wave will be monitored over the next several days for the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W/100W north of 03N to inland southwestern Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 96W to 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from southwest Caribbean to across northern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N109W to 07N120W. ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 16N127W. Aside from the convection associated with Hurricane Olaf and the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 86W to 97W, and between 102W to 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Olaf. Aside from Olaf, a ridge of high pressure extends well west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate wids are noted west of Baja California as well as over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Hurricane Olaf is forecast to turn toward the northwest by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. Additional strengthening is likely before Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight. Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds will continue through tonight, then become gentle to moderate southeast winds through Sat. Fresh to strong gaps winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri afternoon and continue into the upcoming weekend. A tropical wave is in the far eastern Pacific waters. Low pressure is forecast to develop in association to this tropical wave this weekend off the southern coast of Mexico. Subsequent gradual development of this system will be possible, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough with light winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across the Central American offshore waters, with 6-7 ft seas over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands due to southwest swell. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are expected over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late Sat through late Sun as low pressure develops south of the southern coast of Mexico. Seas offshore Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are expected to build this weekend due to strong south to southwest winds combining with southwest swell that will be propagating through those same offshore waters. These seas will begin to slowly subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure is centered near 15N136W, with high pressure north of the discussion waters. Recent ASCAT pass indicated moderate to fresh winds north of the low, with gentle to moderate winds south of the low. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of 10N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 10N. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in the vicinity of the low, and 4-5 ft elsewhere north of 10N. South of 10N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, locally to 8 ft. A set of southwest swell will propagate through the waters west of the Galapagos Islands tonight through the upcoming weekend. Seas will range between 8-11 ft through early next week. $$ AL