000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080937 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 8 2021 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 18.2N 107.4W at 08/0300 UTC moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that the system has changed little in organization during the past several hours. The imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of a line from 20N106W to 19N107W. The depression is expected to make a turn to the northwest later tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thu. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thu and Thu night. Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thu and Thu night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W north of 03N to inland western El Salvador and eastern Guatemala. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N-14N. This includes most of eastern El Salvador. A tropical wave has its axis along 99W north of 03N to inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis from 06N to 12N. A tropical wave has its axis along 139W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 12N to 15N west of 139W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from just inland northwestern Colombia to across southern Costa Rica to 10N86W to 11N92W and to 12N101W. It resumes at 14N116W to 12N125W to 14N131W and to 14N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 84W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 135W-137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. A weak 1013 mb low is centered near 27N125W. No convection is occurring with this low as it is surrounded by a very dry and stable environment. Latest ASCAT data depicts gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula with seas to 4 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. The ASCAT data revealed light to gentle variable winds across the Gulf of California. Seas are less than 3 ft, except 3-4 ft just south of the entrance to the Gulf. Rather quiet conditions prevail across the Gulf of California with no significant convection noted there, however scattered moderate convection is just inland Mexico from northern Jalisco to southern Nayarit due to Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. A recent ASCAT data pass shows fresh to strong east-southeast winds on the outer periphery of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E along and offshore the coast from Jalisco to Guerrero. Earlier altimeter data showed seas of 8-9 ft in that area. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are across the Nayarit offshores in addition to Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 6-7 ft in long-period southwest swell. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is forecast to turn to the northwest later tonight. This motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thu. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thu and Thu night. The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thu. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, winds are expected to return to light tonight and continue through Thu night. Light to gentle winds will continue across southern Mexico. Fresh to strong gaps winds could develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Thu night and continuing into the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough with light and variable winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-6 ft in the Central American offshore waters and 6-7 ft seas off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore the coast of Costa Rica. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the coast of Colombia south of 06N. Seas are 3-6 ft in the Central American offshore waters, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands due to a southwest swell. These seas will build to 6-8 ft due to a southwest swell beginning Wed. Winds in Papagayo region will become moderate southerly in direction beginning Fri and increase to fresh speeds Sat. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected along the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands Tue through the end of the week. Strong south to southwest winds are expected over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late Sat as low pressure develops over or near those waters. Seas in this area will remain in the 6-7 ft range, except near 8 ft seas in the region west of Ecuador. Seas offshore Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are expected to build to possibly 9 ft during Sat and Sat night due to the expected strong south to southwest winds combining with southwest swell that will be propagating through those same offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough, with the gradient between it and lower pressure to the south in the monsoon trough region allowing for moderate to fresh NNE winds and seas 7 ft south of 15N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with seas to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft due to a southwest swell continue south of the Equator and west of the Galapagos Islands through early Wed, then another set of southwest swell will again begin to propagate through the waters west of the Galapagos Islands late from Thu through the upcoming weekend. $$ Aguirre