000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060957 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 06 2021 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1008 mb is located along the monsoon trough near 16N103W, moving northwest near 10 kt. Satellite imagery show that this low is gradually becoming better defined with time as a predominate banding feature has become evident in the SE semicircle of the low. Convection of the scattered moderate type intensity is embedded within this band within 30 nm of 16N103W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of 16N104W and within 15N109W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of the axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends into the far eastern Pacific along 78W and north of 07N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Small isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and near the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 90W north of 06N to well inland Guatemala, It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 05N to 07N. A tropical wave has its axis along 128W from 05N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is moving through a rather stable surrounding environment. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 10N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia near 11N76W to across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica to 12N93W to the 1008 mb low near 16N103W and to 13N111W to 13N120W to 11N129W to west of the area at 12N140W. Aside from convection associated to the 1008 mb low and tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the trough between 112W-114W and within 30 nm of the trough between 85W- 87W and between 121W-124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for details on a low pressure system centered a couple hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. A weak trough extends from 30N117W to near 24N120W. No convection is occurring with this trough as it is surrounded by a very dry and stable environment. Gentle to locally moderate NNW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with seas to 5 ft in long period SW swell. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable winds with seas less than 3 ft prevail. An increasing convective complex of scattered to moderate intensity is propagating off the northwest section of Mexico westward to over the northern and central sections of the Gulf of California. This activity is being driven by an upper-level disturbance that is riding westward along the southern periphery of a mid to upper- level ridge that extends from the western U.S. west to the Pacific Ocean near 123W. Light to gentle variable winds are also across the Nayarit offshores while moderate to fresh SE winds are observed off the coasts of Jalisco to Guerrero. Seas are up to 7 ft in long-period SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of Oaxaca to Jalisco. Winds will continue to be light to gentle off the Baja Peninsula through Mon with locally moderate winds with seas to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds will return Mon night and increase to moderate to fresh by Tue evening as the Special Features low pressure system approaches from the SE. In the Gulf of California, SE winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf late tonight into early Mon, with seas to 4 ft. These winds are expected to return to light by Mon night and continue through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to moderate southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, while light and variable winds are north of the monsoon trough ,except in the Gulf of Papagayo region where moderate NE winds are present. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the Central American offshore waters with 6 to 7 ft seas off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and just inland the remainder of the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the Central American offshore waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 7 ft over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands due to a SW swell. These seas will increase slightly to 6-8 ft Mon night and Tue. Winds in Papagayo region will pulse gentle to locally moderate by Mon morning through mid-week. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands Tue through Thu. Seas in this area will remain in the 6 to 7 ft range, except for 8 ft in the region W of Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough, with the gradient between it and lower pressure to the south in the monsoon trough region allowing for moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft for the are N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with seas to 7 ft. An area of slightly stronger winds, in the fresh range, was noted in a previous ASCAT pass to be confined between 118W-123W. Satellite imagery shows what appears to be a low forming along the monsoon trough near 13N119W. Seas to 8 ft due to a SW swell continue south of the Equator and W of the Galapagos Islands. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a few days well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development is possible thereafter while the system meanders over the open eastern Pacific Ocean. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon, continuing through the middle of the week. $$ Aguirre