000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N northward into El Salvador and Honduras with an axis near 89W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between 87W and 90W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 126W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 17N between 125W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1010 mb low near 14N103W to 13N111W to 13N121W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 19N between 98W to 123W and from 08N to 14N between 128W to beyond 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to locally moderate NNW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with seas to 5 ft in long period SW swell. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable winds with seas less than 3 ft prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the central Gulf from 25N to 27N. Light to gentle variable winds are also across the Nayarit offshores while moderate to fresh SE winds are observed off the coasts of Jalisco to Guerrero. Seas are up to 7 ft in long period SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of Oaxaca to Jalisco. Winds will continue to be light to gentle off the Baja Peninsula through Mon with locally moderate winds with seas to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds will return Mon night and increase to moderate to fresh by Tue evening as an area of low pressure approaches from the SE. In the Gulf of California, winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf by tonight into early Mon morning with seas to 4 ft. Winds are expected to return to light by Mon night and continue through Thu. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph just offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 5 days. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and building seas are forecast for the Jalisco and Baja California Sur offshore waters Tue night through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo and off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the region. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama in addition to Colombia. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the Central American offshore waters with 6 to 7 ft seas off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Winds in Papagayo will pulse gentle to locally moderate by Mon morning through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands Tue through Thu. Seas in this area will remain in the 6 to 7 ft range, except for 8 ft in the region W of Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and provides moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft continue south of the Equator and W of the Galapagos Islands. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a few hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph just offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 5 days. Additionally, another area of low pressure is forecast to form in a few days well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development is possible thereafter while the system meanders over the open eastern Pacific Ocean. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon, continuing through the middle of the week. $$ AReinhart