000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050855
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N northward into Nicaragua and
Honduras with an axis near 86W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is N of 03N between 85W and 93W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 123W, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
06N to 14N between 120W and 130W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N104W to 12N120W to 
11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 14N
between 97W and 105W, and from 10N to 16N between 107W and 116W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate NNW winds are noted off the Baja 
California peninsula with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW
swell. In the Gulf of California light to gentle variable winds 
with seas less than 3 ft prevail. Light to gentle variable winds
are also in Nayarit while gentle to locally moderate SE winds 
are observed from Oaxaca to Michoacan. Seas are up to 6 ft in 
long period SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers and 
thunderstorms continue from the offshore waters of Chiapas to 
Colima. 

Winds will diminish to light to gentle off the Baja Peninsula
today and Mon with seas gradually subsiding to 3 ft. Gentle to 
moderate NW winds will return Mon night and increase to moderate 
to fresh by Tue evening as an area of low pressure approaches 
from the SE. In the Gulf of California, winds will continue to 
be light and variable through today, increasing to moderate to 
locally fresh in the northern Gulf by Mon with seas to 4 ft. 
Winds are expected to return to light by Mon night and continue 
through Thu. 

An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday a few hundred 
miles offshore the SW coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek 
while it moves WNW or NW just offshore the SW coast of Mexico. 
There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 
high chance within the next 5 days. Regardless of development, 
fresh to strong winds and building seas are forecast for the 
Jalisco and Baja California Sur offshore waters Tue night through
Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo while
gentle to moderate SSW winds are occuring in the region of 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the 
Central American offshore waters with 6 to 7 ft seas off of 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

Winds in Papagayo will pulse moderate to locally fresh today, 
and gentle to locally moderate Mon through midweek. Moderate to 
locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa 
Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands Tue 
through Thu. Seas in this area will remain in the 6 to 7 ft 
range, except for 8 ft in the region W of Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon 
trough and provides moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with
seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft continue south of the 
Equator and W of the Galapagos Islands. 

An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday a few hundred 
miles offshore the SW coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek 
while it moves WNW or NW just offshore the SW coast of Mexico. 
There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 
high chance within the next 5 days. Additionally, another area 
of low pressure is forecast to form early this week well to the 
SW of the S tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow 
development is possible thereafter while the system meanders over
the open eastern Pacific Ocean. This system has a low chance of 
development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Otherwise, moderate 
to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the northern waters W of Baja
California by late Mon, continuing through the middle of the 
week. 

$$
Ramos