000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N northward into Nicaragua and Honduras with an axis near 85W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 03N between 83W and 92W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 123W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 117W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N103W to 12N120W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N between 103W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to locally moderate NNW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with seas of 3 to 5 ft in long period SW swell. In the Gulf of California light to gentle variable winds with seas less than 3 ft prevail. Light to gentle variable winds are also in the Tehuantepec and Nayarit while gentle to locally moderate SE winds are observed from Oaxaca to Michoacan. Seas are up to 6 ft in long period SW swell. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue from the offshore waters of Chiapas to Guerrero. Winds will diminish to light to gentle off the Baja Peninsula Sun and Mon with seas gradually subsiding to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds will return Mon night and increase to moderate to fresh by Tue evening as an area of low pressure approaches from the SE. In the Gulf of California winds will continue to be light and variable through Sun, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf by Mon with seas to 4 ft. Winds are expected to return to light by Mon night and continue through Thu. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves WNW or NW just offshore the SW coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 5 days. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and building seas are forecast for the Jalisco and Baja California Sur offshore waters Tue night through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo while gentle to moderate SW winds are occuring from the Costa Rica offshore waters to the region of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the Central American offshore waters with 6 to 7 ft seas off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Winds in Papagayo will continue pulsing fresh tonight, become moderate to locally fresh by Sun, and light by Mon through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia tonight and will continue through the middle of next week. Seas in this area will remain in the 6 to 7 ft range through midweek due to long period SW swell. Winds off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will stay moderate to fresh through Wed with seas building to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and provides moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft continue south of the Equator and W of the Galapagos Islands. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 5 days. Additionally, another area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of days well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development is possible while the system remains nearly stationary out over the open eastern Pacific Ocean. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon, continuing through the middle of the week. $$ Ramos