000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N northward into Central America
with an axis near 84W, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is along and near this wave from 04N to 11N
between 79W and 88W. 

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 122W, 
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N 
to 15N between 119W and 123W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N106W to 13N121W to 
11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 
89W and 91W, from 09N to 16N between 100W and 127W, and from 08N
to 14N W of 132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle NNW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with
seas 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted at the
tip of Baja California Sur. The Gulf of California continues to 
have light to gentle winds with seas less than 3 ft. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms have persisted along the west coast of
Mexico and the eastern Gulf of California. From Tehuantepec to 
the offshore waters of Nayarit, light to gentle winds are 
observed with moderate to locally fresh winds south of Oaxaca. 
Seas are 3 to 6 ft in this area. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring from the offshore waters of Chiapas 
to Jalisco. 

Winds will continue to be light to gentle off of the Baja 
California peninsula tonight through Wednesday with pulses of 
moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 3 to 6 ft. Winds 
across the Gulf of California will continue to be light and 
variable through Sun, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in
the northern Gulf by Mon with seas to 4 ft. Winds are expected to
return to light by Mon night and continue through midweek. 

An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a day or two off 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the 
system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next 
week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a
low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium 
chance within the next 5 days. Seas could build 6 to 8 ft in the
offshore waters of Jalisco, Nayarit and Baja California Sur with
this area of low pressure.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Moderate southerly winds are noted along Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds continue across 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Strong thunderstorms
are clearing out of the Gulf of Panama and moving westward 
across the rest of the Central American countries. Seas are 3 to
5 ft in the Central American offshore waters with 6 to 7 ft seas
off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

Winds in Papagayo will continue pulsing fresh tonight, become 
moderate to locally fresh by Sun, and light by Mon through
midweek. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along 
the regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia tonight and will 
continue through the middle of next week. Seas in this area will 
remain in the 6 to 7 ft range through midweek due to long period 
SW swell. Winds off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will 
stay moderate to fresh through Wed with seas building to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon 
trough and provides moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with
seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft continue south of the 
Equator and W of 93W. 

An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a day or two off 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the 
system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next 
week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a
low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium 
chance within the next 5 days. Additionally, another area of low
pressure is forecast to form in a couple of days well to the 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
Some subsequent development is possible while the system remains 
nearly stationary out over the open east Pacific. This system has
a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the 
northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon, continuing 
through the middle of the week. 

$$
AKR