000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Sep 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 122W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 120W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 15N104W to 12N121W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous strong convection is from 04N to 13N and E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 94W to 122W and from 07N to 13N between 125W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle NNW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with seas 3 to 5 ft. The Gulf of California continues to have light winds with seas less than 3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move off the west coast of Mexico into the Gulf of California. From Tehuantepec to the offshore waters of Nayarit, light to gentle winds are observed with moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from the offshore waters of Chiapas to Guerrero. Winds will continue to be light to gentle off of Baja California today through the middle of next week with seas to 3 to 5 ft. Winds across the Gulf of California will continue to be light and variable through the weekend, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf by Mon with seas to 4 ft. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a day or two off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Seas could build 6 to 7 ft in the offshore waters of Jalisco, Nayarit and Baja California Sur with this area of low pressure. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds continue across Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate southerly winds are noted along Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Strong thunderstorms moving across the Gulf of Panama westward into the offshore waters of El Salvador could have gusts to near gale force. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the Central American offshore waters with 6 to 7 ft seas off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Winds in Papagayo are expected to pulse to fresh tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia tonight and will continue through the middle of next week. Seas in this area will remain in the 6 to 7 ft range through midweek due to long period SW swell. Winds off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will stay moderate to fresh through Wed with seas building to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and provides moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Latest altimeter data show seas to 8 ft south of the Equator and W of 93W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a day or two off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Additionally, another area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of days well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some subsequent development is possible while the system remains nearly stationary out over the open east Pacific. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon, continuing through the middle of the week. Seas will build to 8 ft in N swell. $$ AReinhart