951 AXPZ20 KNHC 040926 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 121W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 115W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 15N105W to 11N120W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough N of 08N between 93W and 102W, from 11N to 17N between 106W and 115W, and from 09N to 13N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The Gulf of California has light winds with seas less than 3 ft. Scattered showers continue to propagate westward from inland Mexico into the gulf. This convection is forecast to continue through today. From Tehuantepec to the offshore waters of Nayarit, light to gentle variable winds are observed with seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are occuring from the offshore waters of Chiapas to Guerrero. Winds will diminish to light to gentle off of Baja California this evening and continue through the middle of next week with seas to 4 ft. Winds across the Gulf of California will continue to be light and variable through the weekend, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf by Mon with seas to 4 ft. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of days off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Seas could build 6 to 7 ft in the offshore waters of Jalisco, Nayarit and Baja California Sur with this area of low pressure. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer data continue to show light to gentle WSW winds across the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Heavy showers and tstms are occuring off the coast of Colombia and in the region of Panama, which may be enhancing the winds to near gale force. Seas are 3 to 5 ft for the region of Central America and 5 to 7 ft for the remainder area. Winds in Papagayo are expected to pulse to fresh tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia tonight and will continue through the middle of next week. Seas in this area will remain in the 6 to 7 ft range through midweek due to long period SW swell. Winds off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will stay moderate to fresh through Wed with seas building to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and provides moderate to locally fresh NNE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Latest altimeter data show seas to 8 ft south of the Equator and W of 93W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of days off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast for the northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon, continuing through the middle of the week. Seas will build to 8 ft in N swell. $$ Ramos