000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040344
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 120W, 
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
10N to 16N between 116W and 123W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 15N105W to 11N120W to 
11N129W. The ITCZ begins near 11N129W and continues beyond 
09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
wave, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
N of 08N between 90W and 108W, and from 10N to 16N between 109W 
and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the ITCZ 
from 06N to 13N W of 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted off the Baja California 
peninsula with seas 3 to 5 ft. The Gulf of California has light 
winds with seas less than 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are
moving from inland Mexico into the gulf. This convection is
forecast to continue through Sat. From Tehuantepec to the 
offshore waters of Nayarit, light to gentle variable winds are 
observed with seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers
and tstms are occuring from the offshore waters of Chiapas to
Guerrero.  

Winds will diminish to light to gentle off of Baja California by
Saturday evening and continue through the middle of next week
with seas to 4 ft. Winds across the Gulf of California will 
continue to be light and variable through the weekend, increasing
to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf by Mon with 
seas to 4 ft. 

An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system 
could become a tropical depression around midweek as it moves 
west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a low chance of 
development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the
next 5 days. Seas could build 6 to 7 ft in the offshore waters 
of Jalisco, Nayarit and Baja California Sur. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest scatterometer data show light to gentle WSW winds across
the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore
waters. Heavy showers and tstms are occuring off the coast of
Colombia and in the region of Panama, which may be enhancing the
winds to near gale force. Seas are 3 to 5 ft for the region of
Central America and 5 to 7 ft for the remainder area. 

Winds in Papagayo are expected to pulse to fresh Saturday night.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the 
regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia by Sat night and will 
continue through the middle of next week. Seas in this area will
remain in the 6 to 7 ft range over the weekend and through midweek
due to long period SW swell. Winds off of Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands will stay moderate to fresh through Wed. Seas 
will build to 8 ft by midweek.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ and provides moderate to locally fresh 
NNE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 
120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Latest altimeter data
show seas to 8 ft south of the Equator and W of 100W.  

An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system 
could become a tropical depression around midweek as it moves 
west-northwestward or northwestward. There is a low chance of 
development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the
next 5 days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE winds are forecast
for the northern waters W of Baja California by late Mon,
continuing through the middle of the week. Seas will build to 8
ft in N swell. 

$$
Ramos