000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 121W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 119W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 16N103W to 11N120W to 11N129W. The ITCZ begins near 11N129W and continues beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 09N to 16N between 93W to 117W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the ITCZ from 06N to 12N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted off the Baja California peninsula with seas 3 to 5 ft. The Gulf of California has light winds with seas less than 3 ft. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the Mexican coast along the east-central Gulf of California with showers at the mouth of the Gulf. Farther south along southern Mexico, light to gentle variable winds are noted with seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters from Jalisco to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to be moderate off the Baja California Peninsula through tonight and diminish to light to gentle through early next week. Seas will continue to be 3 to 5 ft. Winds across the Gulf of California will continue to be light and variable through the weekend, with winds increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the northern Gulf by early next week with seas to 4 ft in this area. An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter as it moves west-northwestward away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Seas could build 6 to 7 ft in the offshore waters of Jalisco through Guerrero. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters with seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coasts of Nicaragua southward into Colombia. Moderate to fresh south-southwesterly winds are occurring off the Ecuador coast and the Galapagos Islands with seas to 6 ft. Winds in Papagayo are expected to pulse to fresh Saturday night. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia by Sat night and will continue through the middle of next week. Seas in this area will build to 6 to 7 ft over the weekend due to long period SW swell and continue through midweek. Winds off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will stay moderate to fresh through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will build to 7 to 8 ft by tonight due to long period SW swell and will also continue through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and provides moderate to fresh NNE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft are noted south of the Equator and W of 109W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter as it moves west-northwestward away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. $$ AReinhart