000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 17N with axis near 119W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 15N between 117W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 16N104W to 11N119W to 10N135W. The ITCZ begins near 10N135W and continues beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 09N to 17N between 92W to 117W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between 131W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula with seas 3 to 5 ft. The Gulf of California has light winds with seas less than 3 ft. Isolated thunderstorms are noted at the mouth of the Gulf. Farther south along southern Mexico, light to gentle variable winds are noted with seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters from Jalisco to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. By the weekend, winds along the Baja California peninsula will gradually diminish to light to gentle with seas continuing to be 3 to 5 ft. Gulf of California will see quiescent conditions persist over the next few days. An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Seas will build to 6-7 ft along the coast of Mexico as long period SW swell reaches the area today through early next week. Meanwhile, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter as it moves west- northwestward away from southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are noted across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters with seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Panama and Colombia. Moderate south to southwesterly winds are occurring off the Ecuador coast and the Galapagos Islands with seas to 6 ft. Winds in Papagayo are expected to pulse to fresh by Saturday night. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are expected along the regions of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia by Sat night and will continue through the middle of next week. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will build to 5 to 6 ft over the weekend into next week due to long period SW swell. Winds off of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will increase moderate to fresh by the weekend with seas building to 7 to 8 ft due to long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and provides moderate NNE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft are noted south of the Equator and W of 109W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter as it moves west-northwestward away from southwestern Mexico. $$ AReinhart