000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 17N with axis near 114W, 
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
12N to 16N between 108W and 118W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 16N104W to 11N120W to 
11N130W to 11N133W. The ITCZ begins near 11N133W and continues 
beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is N of 08N between 
89W and 102W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula 
will gradually diminish to light to gentle by Sat night as the 
pressure gradient relaxes across the region. Seas of 3 to 5 ft 
will build to 6-7 ft along the coast of Mexico as long period SW 
swell reaches the area today through early next week. 

Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere and will prevail 
through Tue, except for the offshore waters between Guerrero and
Jalisco where an area of low pressure is forecast to develop Mon
night into Tue. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter 
as it moves west-northwestward away from southwestern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds across the Central America and
Colombia offshore waters will prevail trough Sat. Moderate to 
locally fresh SW winds are forecast for the region of Costa Rica,
Panama and Colombia by Sat night, continuing through the middle
of next week. Seas of 3 to 4 ft will build to 5-6 ft over the
weekend into next week due to long period SW swell. 

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are forecast for the Ecuador
and Galapagos Islands during the weekend and through most of the
upcoming week. Seas of 5 to 6 ft will build to 7 to 8 ft due to
long period SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ and provides moderate NNE winds and seas
of 5 to 6 ft for the region N of 12N and W of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range as indicated by latest altimeter
data. 

An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter
as it moves west-northwestward away from southwestern Mexico.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
next 5 days. 

$$
Ramos