000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022141
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 02N to 17N, moving
westward W at 10-15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms 
are noted within 60 nm either side of the wave from 12N to 17N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northwestern 
Colombia near 10N75W to low pressure over Nicaragua near 14N84W 
1008 mb and to 15N92W to 16N105W to 13N115W to 12N125W and to
9.5N135W. The ITCZ continues from 09.5N135W to beyond the area 
at 09N140W. Increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 10N to 14N between 98W-104W and also from 
10N to 13N between 91W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 180 nm south of the trough between 112W-119W and within 
120 nm north of the trough between 110W-115W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge is west of Baja California. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across all but the entrance to 
Gulf of California. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the 
basin. Gentle to locally moderate northwest to north winds 
prevail west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds dominate 
the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas of 4-6 ft in mixed 
long period swells prevail across the open waters off Mexico.

This weak high pressure ridge will persist west of Baja 
California through the weekend, with fairly tranquil marine 
conditions anticipated. Afternoon heating will produce fresh
northwest winds along portions of the Pacific coasts of Baja 
each afternoon over the next few days, mainly south of Punta 
Eugenia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to
locally moderate W to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the offshore waters.

Little change in marine conditions are expected the next few 
days. Fresh southwest swell will propagate into the waters 
between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands Fri and build through 
this weekend, increasing wave heights to near 8 ft by Sat night. 
Seas across the remaining offshore waters will build to 6-8 ft 
by Sun night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 31N120W to 25N126W with moderate 
north-northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevailing to the north
of this trough. Winds and seas will decrease through the end of 
the week as the trough shifts slowly southeastward and 
dissipates. Otherwise, broad and weak high pressure dominates the
waters north of the monsoon trough, along with gentle to 
moderate northeast trades. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh 
east of 128W. Seas of 5-8 ft in mixed long-period swell dominate 
the waters. Little overall change in these marine conditions is 
forecast through the next few days.

$$
Aguirre