000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310928
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 88W extending from Belize southward to 
the eastern tropical Pacific, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to 
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 06N 
between 84W and 95W.

A tropical wave is along 104W extending from the Mexican coast
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted N of 07.5N between 96W and 105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to low pres near 09N82W 
1010 MB TO 11.5N96W TO 11N108W, then resumes from 16.5N114W TO 
12N139W. Aside from convection occurring near the tropical waves,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 
01.5N E of 82W, and from 07N to 14.5N between 105W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Nora persist tonight across western Mexico strung
out from central portions of Sinaloa to central interior 
portions of Sonora. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
extends across the entrance and southern waters of the Gulf of 
California from 22.5N to 25N from just offshore of the Baja Sur
coast to coastal Sinaloa. Meanwhile scattered moderate to strong
convection is ongoing across much of Sonora south of 30.5N and
extends into the waters of the Gulf. This heavy rain associated 
with Nora's remnants is expected to continue through Tue across 
Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain may result in life-threatening 
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the remnants of Nora 
is also likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central 
Rockies beginning Wed, bringing the potential for flash flooding 
to the region. Refer to statements issued by your local or 
national meteorological agency for details.

Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted across most of the Gulf 
of California N of 26N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Otherwise, 
weak high pressure prevails west of Baja California with gentle 
to moderate NW winds. Gentle W-NW winds dominate the remainder 
of the offshore waters, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long 
period swells.

Fresh southerly flow will pulse to strong in the the northern 
Gulf of California tonight into early Tue, with seas building 4
to 6 ft. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail west of Baja 
California through the week with fairly tranquil marine 
conditions anticipated. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are pulsing in the Papagayo 
region, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, locally to
8 ft south of 09N. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring offshore of Costa Rica to El Salvador,
while isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
elsewhere.

Mainly gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, 
with moderate to fresh offshore pulses expected nightly in the 
Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the 
monsoon trough will prevail through midweek, diminishing some 
thereafter. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 33N122W to 25N132W with moderate 
to fresh N-NE winds prevail to the northwest of this trough. 
Otherwise, broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters 
north of the monsoon trough, along with gentle to moderate 
trades. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh east of 125W. Seas of 
5 to 8 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the waters.

Fresh northerly swell with seas of around 8 ft has begun to 
propagate southward to near 28N and west of 126W. This swell 
will decay midweek. Otherwise, little overall change in marine 
conditions is forecast through the week.

$$
Stripling