000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310333 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W extending from the Gulf of Honduras southward to the eastern tropical Pacific, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 04N between 81W and 93.5W. A tropical wave is along 101W-102W extending from southern Mexico southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Aside from convection along the monsoon trough, a cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11.5N to 14N between 98.5W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N78W to low pres near 08.5N82W 1009 mb to 10N106W, then resumes from 16N109W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 10.5N between 91W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 13N to 15N between 110W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Nora persist tonight across western Mexico from central portions of Sinaloa to central interior portions of Sonora. Scattered moderate convection extends across the entrance to the Gulf of California from 22.5N to 24N and east of 109W to coastal Sinaloa. Meanwhile scattered moderate to strong convection is ongoing across much of interior Sonora south of 30.5N. This heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected to continue through Tue across Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wed, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. Refer to statements issued by your local or national meteorological agency for details. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted across most of the Gulf of California N of 24N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Otherwise, weak high pressure prevails west of Baja California with gentle to moderate W-NW winds. Gentle W-NW winds dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swells. Fresh to strong southerly flow will pulse in the the northern Gulf of California tonight into early Tue. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail west of Baja California through the week with fairly tranquil marine conditions anticipated. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are pulsing in the Papagayo region, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, locally to 8 ft south of 07N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore of western Panama, Costa Rica, and near the coast of Nicaragua, while isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere. Mainly gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail through midweek, diminishing some thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 33N123W to 26N133W with moderate to fresh N-NE winds west of it. Otherwise, broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough, along with gentle to moderate trades. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh east of 120W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the waters. Fresh northerly swell with seas of around 8 ft is beginning to propagate south of 30N west of 127W. This swell will decay midweek. Otherwise, little overall change in marine conditions is forecast through the week. $$ Stripling