000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301409 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Remnants of Nora are located from near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico to across the central and southern Gulf of California and east of there over inland areas. While the tropical cyclone circulation and associated winds and seas have dissipated, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 25N between 105W and 109W. This heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected to continue through Tue across the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wed, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. Refer to statements issued by your national meteorological agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W extending from the western Caribbean Sea along the coast of Nicaragua southward to across Costa Rica and the far eastern tropical Pacific, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 86W. A tropical wave is along 99W extending from southern Mexico southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 96W and 101W, and from 03N to 09N between 101W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southwest Caribbean Sea near 11N78W to across Costa Rica near 10N86W to 07N101W, then extending from 17N100W to 11N120W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 87W and 97W, from 13N to 16N between 110W and 115W, and from 07N to 09N between 115W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on heavy rainfall associated with the Remnants of Nora. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are noted from 20N to near the entrance of the Gulf of California east of 111W, and from 24N to 26N in the southern Gulf of California, associated with the Remnants of Nora. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across these areas. High pressure prevails west of Baja California with mainly moderate W-NW winds. Gentle W-NW winds dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swells. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail west of Baja California through the week with fairly tranquil marine conditions anticipated. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are pulsing this morning in the Papagayo region, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S-Sw winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, locally to 8 ft south of 07N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore of Colombia and Panama, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail through midweek, diminishing some thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough, along with gentle to moderate trades. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh east of 120W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the waters. For the forecast, fresh northerly swell with seas of around 8 ft is forecast to propagate south of 30N later today west of 125W, decaying midweek. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the week. $$ Lewitsky