000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300931 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite imagery, surface observations, and scatterometer data across the Gulf of California overnight indicate that the surface circulation associated with Nora has been significantly disturbed moving across the terrain of western Mexico. The remnants of Nora are estimated to be located near 25.3N 108.1W at 0900 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted across the Gulf of California from 22N TO 27N E OF 110W, and extends inland across the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidentales. The surface center of Nora is expected to dissipate inland this afternoon. However, the middle level center of Nora can be see to the southeast, across central portions of Sinaloa. This circulation is expected to move N-NW to NW during the next 24 to 48 hours and produce heavy rains over Nayarit, and Sinaloa through Mon and then across portions of Sonora Mon night and Tue. Life-threatening flash and river flooding as well as mudslides are expected. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 81W-82W, extending from the western Caribbean into the eastern Pacific, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 02.5N E of 85W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 13.5N between 91W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 10N104W to 12.5N125W to 12N140. Aside from convection noted above associated with tropical waves, Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 116W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, generally gentle and variable winds are occurring over the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California, with southerly swell in the southern Gulf inducing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate NW to N winds are noted offshore of Baja California. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 5 to 7 ft, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Cabo San Lucas in lingering swell from Nora. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California. In the wake of Nora, high pressure will rebuild southeastward down the coast of Mexico late in the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate E winds prevail in the Papagayo region this morning, with gentle and variable winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of the week, with moderate offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak and disorganized low pressure, related to the remnants of Tropical Depression Marty, is analyzed as a 1014 mb low centered near 16N139W. No convection is associated with this low and only moderate cyclonic winds are occurring to the NW of the low. It should weaken and open into a trough as it moves west of the area todat. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N to NE winds west of 122W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels through Wed. As high pressure builds south toward midweek, fresh northerly winds will result N of 26N, and new northerly swell will push south into the area, building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 124W and 138W. $$ Stripling