000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300343 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nora is centered near 24.8N 107.9W at 30/0300 UTC moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 270 nm SE quadrants, and extends well northward along the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidentales to 30N. The surface center of Nora is becoming very difficult to track as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico. However the low to middle level circulation of Nora is expected to move N-NW to NW during the next 24 to 48 hours and remain inland or along the coast. Winds at the surface, and over the adjacent Gulf of California waters are expected to diminish below tropical storm strength by late Mon afternoon, and then dissipate inland across Sonora by 48 hours. Nora is expected to continue to produce torrential rains over Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sinaloa through Mon and into Sonora Mon night and Tue. Life- threatening flash and river flooding as well as mudslides are expected. Large wind generated seas and southerly swells generated by Nora are affecting the W coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California tonight through mon night. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 80W, extending from the western Caribbean into the eastern Pacific, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 01.5N E of 84W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 91W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11.5N92W to 14N98W, then resumes from 15N114W to 15N125W to 11N140W. Aside from convection noted above associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N between 106W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, generally gentle and variable winds are occurring over the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California, with southerly swell in the southern Gulf inducing seas of 4 to 8 ft. Moderate NW to N winds are noted offshore of Baja California. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft offshore of Cabo San Lucas in swell from Nora. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California. In the wake of Nora, high pressure will rebuild southeastward down the coast of Mexico late in the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate E winds prevail in the Papagayo region this evening, with gentle and variable winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of the week, with moderate offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak and disorganized low pressure, related to the remnants of Tropical Depression Marty, is analyzed as a 1013 mb low centered near 16N139W. No convection is associated with this low and only moderate cyclonic winds are occurring in its vicinity. It should weaken and open into a trough as it moves west of the area tonight. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N to NE winds west of 122W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels through Wed. As high pressure builds south toward midweek, fresh northerly winds will result N of 26N, and new northerly swell will push south into the area, building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 124W and 138W. $$ Stripling