000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Nora has weakened to a tropical storm this afternoon and is centered near 24.3N 107.5W at 29/2100 UTC moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm S semicircle and 150 nm N semicircle. Tropical Storm Nora is expected to move N or NNW early this week, keeping Nora very near or over the coast of west- central Mexico, and into the eastern Gulf of California. Slight weakening is anticipated through Mon, but Nora is forecast to remain a tropical storm through landfall in Sonora, Mexico Mon night. On Tue, Nora will likely weaken to a tropical depression, inland, south of Hermosillo, Mexico. Nora is expected to continue to produce torrential rains over Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sinaloa through Tue. Life- threatening flash and river flooding as well as mudslides are expected. Large wind generated seas and southerly swells generated by Nora are affecting the W and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 95W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 91W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 79W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 01N and E of 82W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 13N95W, then resumes from 17N111W to 11N138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 111W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, generally gentle and variable winds are occurring over the Gulf of California, with southerly swell in the southern Gulf inducing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate NW to N winds are noted offshore of Baja California. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft offshore of Cabo San Lucas in building swell from Nora. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California. In the wake of Nora, high pressure will rebuild southeastward down the coast of Mexico late in the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate E winds prevail in the Papagayo region today, with gentle and variable winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of the week, with moderate offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak and disorganized low pressure, related to the remnants of Tropical Depression Marty, is 1011 mb and centered near 17N139W. No convection is associated with this low and only moderate cyclonic winds are occurring in its vicinity. It should weaken and open into a trough as it moves west of the area tonight. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N winds. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels. As high pressure builds south toward midweek, fresh northerly winds will result N of 26N, and new northerly swell will push south into the area, building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W. $$ KONARIK