000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category One Hurricane Nora is centered near 23.3N 106.4W at 29/1500 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm NE semicircle and 180 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong conveciton is also noted from 15N to 19N between 100W and 106W. Nora is expected to move N or NNW early this week, keeping Nora very near or over the coast of west-central Mexico, and into the eastern Gulf of California. Slight weakening is anticipated through Tue due to the proximity to land, and Nora is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Nora is expected to continue to produce torrential rains over Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sinaloa through Tue. Life-threatening flash and river flooding as well as mudslides are expected. Large wind generated seas and southerly swells generated by Nora are affecting the W and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Nora is expected to move inland across Sonora Tue night and then quickly weaken. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W, moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 91W and 100W. Another tropical wave is emerging into the Gulf of Panama this morning, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting waters N of 03N and E of 80W ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 13N95W, then resumes from 17N111W to 11N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N between 80W and 84W, from 08N to 13N between 87W and 91W, and from 07N to 12N between 111W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Hurricane Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, generally gentle and variable winds are occurring over the Gulf of California, with southerly swell in the southern Gulf inducing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Moderate NW to N winds are noted offshore of Baja California. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft offshore of Cabo San Lucas in building swell from Nora. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora moves northward through the Gulf of California early this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate E winds prevail in the Papagayo region this morning, with gentle and variable winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with some locally fresh winds just offshore mainland Ecuador. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of the week, with moderate to locally fresh offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface trough previously along 137W has closed into a low pressure on again, and the 1011 mb center is located this morning near 16N138W. This low is expected to weaken and open into a trough as it moves west of the area by tonight. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N to NE winds, highest N of 22N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels. New northerly swell will push south into the area tonight through Tue with building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W. $$ KONARIK