000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nora is centered along the coast of western Mexico near 22.5N 105.9W at 0900 UTC, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm NW and 180 nm SE semicircles. Scattered moderate to strong convection occurring in bands is noted elsewhere from 15N to 19N between 100W and 106W. Nora is expected to move N to N-NW today through tonight, taking the center along or very near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa. Due to the proximity to land, slight weakening to a tropical storm is expected tonight through Tue as Nora continues northward and across eastern portions of the Gulf of California. Nora is expected to produce heavy to torrential rains across the west coast of Mexico in the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit today and tonight and then shift northward into Sinaloa tonight through Tue. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will likely occur. Large wind generated seas and southerly swells generated by Nora are affecting the W and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California through early next week. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Nora is expected to move inland across Sonora Tue night and then quickly weaken. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W, moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 12.5N between 87W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N89W to 14N95W, then resumes from 16N110W to 11N131W. The ITCZ then begins from 11N131W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 84W, from 08.5N to 12.5N between 87W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm southeast of trough between 107W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Hurricane Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across all but north portions of the Gulf of California. Southerly swell from Nora has begun to enter the entrance to the Gulf tonight, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Moderate NW to N winds are noted offshore of Baja California. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft offshore of Cabo San Lucas in building swell from Nora. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora moves northward through the Gulf of California into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate E winds prevail offshore of Papagayo tonight, while gentle N to NW winds prevail elsewehre north of 10N. Moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of next week, with moderate offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening surface trough along 137W from 15N to 20N will dissipate today. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N to NE winds, highest N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing Mon through Tue. New northerly swell will push south into the area through Tue with building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W. $$ Stripling