000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nora is centered near 21.3N 105.5W at 29/0300 UTC moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, due to recent interaction with land. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 210 nm SW semicircles. Scattered moderate to strong convection occurring in bands is noted elsewehre from 16N to 19N between 101W and 108W. Nora is expected to move N to N-NW tonight, taking the center along or very near the Nayarit coast. On Sun, Nora is expected to turn more NW, taking it very near the coastline of southern portions of Sinaloa and gradually further into the Gulf of California. Very little change in strength is expected through the weekend, as drier air and land interaction begins to favor gradual weakening by late Sun. The current forecast weakens Nora to a tropical storm late Sun afternoon and continues through Tue as Nora moves northward and into central portions of the Gulf of California, and along or very near the coastline of mainland Mexico. Nora is expected to produce heavy to torrential rains across the west coast of Mexico in the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit tonight through Sun and shift northward into Sinaloa Sun through Mon. As a result, life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides will likely occur. Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California tonight through early next week. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 91W, moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 08N within 180 nm either side of wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 12N95W, then resumes from 16N110W to 11N128W. The ITCZ then begins from 11N128W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N between 79W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm southeast of trough between 108W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Hurricane Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Southerly swell from Nora has begun to enter the entrance to the Gulf tonight, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Moderate NW to N winds are noted offshore of Baja California. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft offshore of Cabo San Lucas in building swell from Nora. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora moves northward through the Gulf of California into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle N winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of next week, with moderate offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening surface trough along 137W from 15N to 20N will dissipate this evening. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N to NE winds, highest N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the weekend. New northerly swell will push south into the area through the weekend with building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W. $$ Stripling