000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nora is centered near 19.7N 105.5W at 28/2100 UTC moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Nora is expected to move NNW or N through tonight, taking the center very near the Jalisco coast. On Sun, Nora will turn back to the NW, taking it into the Gulf of California. Little change in strength is expected through the weekend, before drier air and land interaction begins to favor gradual weakening early next week. The current forecast keeps Nora a hurricane through Tue. Heavy rain associated with Hurricane Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico in the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will likely occur. Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California through the weekend and into early next week. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 91W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 07N between 86W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 13N96W, then resumes from 15N110W to 11N128W. The ITCZ then begins from 11N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 113W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Hurricane Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora approaches the region into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle N winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough though the first part of next week, with moderate offshore pulses expected nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening surface trough along 136W from 15N to 20N will dissipate this evening. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate N winds, highest N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate most of the waters. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the weekend. New northerly swell will push south into the area through the weekend with building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W. $$ KONARIK