000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Nora is centered near 17.1N 105.2W AT 0900 UTC moving N-NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm NE and 180 nm SE Semicircles. Satellite imagery tonight suggests that Nora is attempting to develop an eye feature, and has reached minimal hurricane strength. Nora is expected to move toward NNW today and brush along the coast near Cabo Corrientes and then turn more NW and move across Las Tres Marias tonight, then continue northwestward through the southern Gulf of California Sun through Tue night. Interaction with land near Cabo Corrientes is expected to limit Nora from strengthening significantly, and only a modest increase in winds is expected. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of western Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will likely occur. Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California through the weekend and into early next week. These swells will produce very large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 87W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 03N between 81W and 87W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N71W to 14N95W, then resumes from 15N110W to 12N128W. The ITCZ then begins from 12N128W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 06.5N east of 80W, north of 09.5N between 87W and 96W, and from 08N to 16N between 108W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora approaches the region through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to light NW winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat this weekend. New reinforcing long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 17.5N133.5W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Fresh NE winds continue across the NW semicircle, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate NE to E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 127W, with gentle to moderate NW to N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 127W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside this weekend as the low continues to move W-SW and opens up into a trough. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the weekend. New northerly swell will push south into the area during the weekend with building seas to 7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W. $$ Stripling