000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280346
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nora is centered near 16.3N 105.1W at 28/0300 UTC
moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed remains 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 360 nm NE
and 300 nm SE Semicircles. Nora is expected to move toward the 
NW or NNW through the weekend, while strengthening. Nora is 
forecast to become a hurricane Sat as it passes near but just 
west and offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Heavy rain associated with 
Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will likely occur.
Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora are 
affecting the southern and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to 
the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California 
this weekend and into early next week. These swells will  
produce very large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip 
current conditions. Nora is expected to approach the southern 
Gulf of California Sun afternoon and move through south portions
of the Gulf Sun night through Tue. Please read the latest NHC 
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml 
and Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 86W-87W, moving W at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 03N 
between 81W and 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 11N92W, then resumes
from 14N110W to 09.5N129W. The ITCZ then begins from 09.5N129W  
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 10N to 16N between 109W an 116W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06.5N to 09N between 116W and 126W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical 
Storm Nora.

Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle to locally
moderate SE winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate NW
winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of 
Punta Eugenia, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across 
the open offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 ft or 
less in the Gulf of California.

Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja
California, retreating as Nora approaches the region through the
weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly gentle to light NW winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua 
northward. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail south
of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period 
S to SW swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft 
offshore of Ecuador.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon 
trough will diminish somewhat this weekend. New reinforcing long 
period SW swell will propagate across the region through the 
weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1010 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 18N133W. There 
is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Fresh NE 
winds continue across the NW semicircle, along with seas of 7 to
9 ft. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds 
prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle
to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 
120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of 
the waters.

Winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will 
gradually diminish and subside this weekend as the low continues
to move W-SW and opens up into a trough. Trades north of the 
monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, 
dimishing by the end of the weekend. New northerly swell will 
push south into the area during the weekend with building seas to
7 to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 134W.

$$
Stripling