000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nora is centered near 15.4N 104.3W at 27/1500 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the center. Nora is expected to move toward the NW or NNW through the weekend, while strengthening. Nora is forecast to become a hurricane Sat before approaching the Mexican coast near Cabo Corrientes late Sat afternoon. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and SW coast of Mexico and will spread to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California this weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to produce very large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 85W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N80W to 13N95W, then resumes from 14N110W to 14N124W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 3N and E of 85W and from 05N to 10N between 111W an 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 6 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora approaches the region through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat by the end of the week. New reinforcing long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 20N130W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Fresh NE winds continue on the NW semicircle, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside into the weekend as the low continues to move quickly W-SW and open up into a trough. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the upcoming weekend. New northerly swell will push south into the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas to around 8 ft along 30N. $$ KONARIK