000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270952 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nora is centered near 14.6N 103.5W at 0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is now 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm across the SW semicircle, while scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within the NE semicircle. Nora is forecast to turn NW today and then N-NW tonight through Sat, while gradually strengthening, and reach hurricane strength as it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes late Sat afternoon. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico tonight from Puerto Angel to Manzanillo, and will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Mexico and into southern portions of the Gulf of California through the weekend. These swells are likely to produce very large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11.5N93W, then resumes from 14N109W to 15N124W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 03.5N east of 83W, north of 07.5N between 83W and 93W, and within 180 nm south of the trough between 111W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 6 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora approaches the region through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat by the end of the week. Reinforcing long period SW swell will propagate across the regional waters through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1011 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 19.50N129W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Associated NE winds of around 20 kt, with seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail across the northern semicircle. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of the week as the low continues to move quickly W-SW and open up into a trough. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the upcoming weekend. New northerly swell will push south into the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas to around 8 ft along 30N. $$ Stripling