000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nora is centered near 14.1N 102.6W at 27/0300 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 101W AND 107W, while scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11.5N to 17.5N between 96W AND 102W. Nora is forecast to turn NW tonight and then N-NW Fri through Sat, while gradually strengthening, and reach hurricane strength as it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes late Sat afternoon. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. Large wind generated seas and SE swells generated by Nora have begun to affect the southern coast of Mexico this evening from Puerto Angel to Manzanillo, and will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause very large and dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 01N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Moisture and associated weather has begun to merge and become absorbed by he broader circulation of Tropical Storm Nora. This wave has been removed from the 0000 UTC surface map. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11N91W, then resumes from 13N109W to 13.5N120W to 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 92W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Storm Nora. Aside from conditions associated with Nora, gentle and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 6 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Nora, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Nora approaches the region through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward, locally fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat by the end of the week. Reinforcing long period SW swell will propagate across the regional waters through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 20N128W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Associated NE winds of 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail across the northern semicircle. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. Winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of the week as the low continues to move quickly SW and spin down. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the upcoming weekend. New northerly swell will push south into the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas to around 8 ft near 30N. $$ Stripling