000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Nora is centered near 12.5N 100.8W at 26/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 21N between 97W and 110W. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. Swells generated by Nora are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W north of 01N to near the Tehuantepec region of Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1N93W. It resumes from 13N108W to 13N121W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 83W, and from 09N to 14N between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 124W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Aside from conditions associated with Fourteen-E, gentle and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 3 to 6 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Fourteen-E, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Fourteen-E approaches the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward, locally fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region through today. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1009 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 21N126W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Associated winds are 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas to around 8 ft near 30N. $$ AL