000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260849 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 12.0N 100.6W at 26/0900 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 20N between 91W and 109W. Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm this afternoon with seas building to 12 ft or greater, especially along the coast of Mexico due to funneling and the fetch of the winds, and strengthen to a hurricane Sun morning. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the coast of Mexico later today. Fourteen-E is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Fri. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W along the Pacific coast of Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 01N to near the Tehuantepec region of Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N92W, then resumes from 12N108W to 12N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 82W and 90W, and from 09N to 12N between 126W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 77W and 81W, from 08N to 10N between 113W and 120W, and from 08N to 10N between 134W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Aside from conditions associated with Fourteen-E, gentle and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore of Baja California, highest north of Punta Eugenia, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 3 to 6 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Fourteen-E, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Fourteen-E approaches the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward, locally fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 9 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region through today. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 21N124W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Associated winds are 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas to around 8 ft near 30N. $$ Lewitsky