000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 11.9N 100.1W at 26/0300 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 97W and 111W, and from 13N to 17N between 97W and 108W. Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.3N 101.2W Thu morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 18.8N 106.5W Sat evening. While the core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 01N to near the border of Guatemala and Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to 11N91W, then resumes from 12N104W to 12N121W, then resumes from 14N124W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 80W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 128W and 132W, and from 09N to 12N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Aside from conditions associated with Fourteen-E, gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of California.Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore of Baja California, locally strong north of Punta Eugenia, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas across the open offshore waters of Mexico are 3 to 5 ft, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Aside from Fourteen-E, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja California, retreating as Fourteen-E approaches the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Marty is located near 20.5N123.5W. There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. Associated winds are 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate NW-N winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 120W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the waters, except locally to 8 ft just south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the monsoon trough will persist at moderate to fresh levels, dimishing by the end of the upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas to around 8 ft near 30N. $$ Lewitsky