000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252041
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Aug 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly developed Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 
11.7N 99.4W at 25/2100 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong is 
noted within 60 nm N semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong is elsewhere from 06N to 16N between 95W and 106W. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 01N, moving W 
at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends 11N86W to 12N97W. It resumes west of
TD14-E near 13N103W to 16N112W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
east of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 
11N between 128W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on newly developed TD Fourteen-E 

Aside from conditions associated to TD Fourteen-E, Light to 
gentle southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Gentle 
to moderate winds are noted offshore of Baja California, and 
light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas across the open 
offshore waters of Mexico are 3 to 5 ft, and 3 ft or less in the 
Gulf of California. 

Aside from TD Fourteen-E, a high pressure ridge will prevail 
west of Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing 
along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under
the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate to locally
fresh S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 
to 6 ft in mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will 
diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of 
long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the
end of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant 1009 mb low of Marty is located near 20.5N123W. 
There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. 
Associated winds are 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Broad 
surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate southerly winds south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the 
waters, locally to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low
of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of 
the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the 
monsoon trough will gradually increase to moderate to fresh as 
the pressure gradient tightens, dimishing by the end of the
upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into 
the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas.

$$
AL