000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251512
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Aug 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of 
the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Upper-level winds are forecast 
to become more conducive for development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so 
while moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph, offshore of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Numerous moderate and scattered 
strong convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 96W and 104W. 
Currently associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 10 
ft. Winds are forecast to increasing to gale force by this 
evening. This system has a high chance for tropical development 
within the next 48 hours. Refer to the National Hurricane Center 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov and the High Seas 
Forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 01N, moving W 
at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98/99W north of 01N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is along the tropical wave near 
12.5N98.5W. Associated convection is described in the Special 
Features section above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends 11N86W to 15N111W to 11N140W. Aside
from convection noted above, scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N east of 96W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 128W and
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
developing area of low pressure offshore of southern Mexico.

Light to gentle southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California, with gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja 
California. Moderate to fresh winds are being funneled along the
coast and across the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima. Seas
across the offshore waters of Mexico outside of the area of low
pressure are 3 to 6 ft, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec along with 5 to 7 ft seas.

Aside the area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern 
Mexico, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja 
California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing 
along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under
the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Light to gentle winds 
prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward, except moderate to fresh
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell 
dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will 
diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of 
long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the
end of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant 1009 mb low of Marty is located near 20.5N122W. 
There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. 
Associated winds are 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Broad 
surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds
south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of 
the waters, locally to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low
of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of 
the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the 
monsoon trough will gradually increase to moderate to fresh as 
the pressure gradient tightens, dimishing by the end of the
upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into 
the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas.

$$
AL