000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250805
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Aug 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in 
association with a 1006 mb low pressure area located a couple 
hundred nm south of the southern coast of Mexico near 13N98.5W. 
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
10N to 18N between 98W and 104W. Currently associated winds are 
20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Winds are forecast to
increasing to gale force by this evening. However, recent 
satellite wind data indicate that the system does not currently 
have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression 
is expected to form during the next day or so. The system is 
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt 
this week, remaining offshore of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. This system has a high chance for tropical development 
within the next 48 hours. Refer to the National Hurricane Center 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov and the High Seas 
Forecast at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W from near the Galapagos 
Islands north to near the Guatemala-El Salvador border, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the 
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98.5W from 01N north to near
the Tehuantepec region, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is
along the tropical wave near 13N98.5W. Associated convection is 
described in the Special Features section above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
low pressure near 13N98.5W to 13.5N120W to 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm of
the coast of Central America and Mexico east of 98W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 90W and 
103W, from 11N to 14N between 110W and 113W, from 10N to 14N 
between 123W and 130W, and from 09N to 11N between 131W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
developing area of low pressure offshore of southern Mexico.

Light to gentle southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California, with gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja 
California. Moderate to fresh winds are being funneled along the
coast and across the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima. Seas
across the offshore waters of Mexico outside of the area of low
pressure are 3 to 6 ft, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec along with 5 to 7 ft seas.

Aside the area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern 
Mexico, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja 
California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing 
along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under
the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Light to gentle winds 
prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward, except moderate to fresh
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell 
dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will 
diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of 
long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the
end of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant 1008 mb low of Marty is located near 20.5N120.5W. 
There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low. 
Associated winds are 20 to 25 kt, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Broad 
surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds
south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of 
the waters, locally to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low
of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of 
the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the 
monsoon trough will gradually increase to moderate to fresh as 
the pressure gradient tightens, dimishing by the end of the
upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into 
the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas.

$$
Lewitsky