000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage since 
yesterday and continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a 1006 mb low pressure system located a couple 
of hundred nm south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near
13N97W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 210 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 17N between 95W and
104W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 35 kt with seas of 8 
to 10 ft. Environmental conditions remain conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, 
remaining offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. This 
system has a high chance for tropical development within the next
48 hours. Refer to the National Hurricane Center Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W from near the Galapagos
Islands north to El Salvador, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between
77W and 90W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W from 01N north to near
the Tehuantepec region, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is
along the tropical wave near 13N97W. Associated convection is
described in the Special Features section above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W to
07N81W to low pressure near 13N97W to 15N109W to 13N120W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted within 120 nm of the coast of Central America and Mexico 
between 86W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
11N to 13N between 109W and 114W, from 12N to 13N between 124W 
and 130W, and from 09N to 11N between 128W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
developing area of gale force low pressure offshore of southern 
Mexico.

Light to gentle southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California, with gentle to moderate winds offshore of Baja 
California. Moderate to fresh winds are being funneled along the
coast and across the offshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan. 
Seas across the offshore waters of Mexico are 4 to 7 ft, except 
3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong N-NE 
winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 5 to 7 ft seas.

Aside the area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern 
Mexico, a high pressure ridge will prevail west of Baja 
California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing 
along the coast and offshore waters from Colombia northward under
the influence of moist monsoonal winds. Light to gentle winds 
prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward, except moderate to fresh
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell 
dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will 
diminish somewhat by the end of the week. A reinforcing set of 
long period SW swell will propagate across the region through the
end of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Marty is located near 20.5N119.5W at 1007 mb.
There is no deep convection associated with the remnant low.
Associated winds are 20 to 30 kt, with seas of 7 to 10 ft.

Broad surface ridging dominates the waters elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail north 
of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly 
winds south of the monsoon trough, locally to strong. Seas of 4 
to 7 ft dominate most of the waters, except near the locally 
strong winds where seas are 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnant low
of Marty will gradually diminish and subside through the end of 
the week as the low continues to spin down. Trades north of the 
monsoon trough will gradually increase to moderate to fresh as 
the pressure gradient tightens, dimishing by the end of the
upcoming weekend. A set of northerly swell may push south into 
the area during the upcoming weekend with building seas.

$$
Lewitsky