000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marty is centered near 20.5N 112.4W at 23/1500
UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted within 45 nm E semicircle and 100 nm W
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere
within 150 nm W semicircle. Gradual weakening is forecast to 
begin on Tuesday, and Marty is expected to weaken to a tropical 
depression by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low 
on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends along 83W and N
of 06N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted N of 05N and E of 84W.

A tropical wave is along 91W and N of 09N, moving W at 10 to 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 07N between 90W
and 98W.

A tropical wave is along 111W from 01N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave,
mainly across the northern half.

A tropical wave is along 126W from 01N to 18N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along 12N, where 
the wave meets the monsoon trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W, then resumes
from 13N115W to beyond 12N140W. Aside from the convection 
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 15N and E of 100W, from 12N to 
23N between 101W and 109W, and from 10N to 13N and W of 115W.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Marty.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of California, with
gentle to moderate NW-N winds offshore of Baja California outside
of Marty. Moderate to fresh SE winds are being funneled along 
the coast and across the offshore waters of Guerrero and 
Michoacan. Seas across the offshore waters of Mexico outside of
Marty are 4 to 7 ft, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec along with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, aside from Marty, another area of disturbed 
weather off the coast of southern Mexico may gradually develop as
environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week offshore 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system move W-NW or
NW at around 10 kt. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly flow 
will prevail in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong N-NE
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue along and 
within 90 nm of the coast of Central America from Panama 
northward under the influence of moist monsoonal winds, and the 
passage of two tropical waves across the region. Moderate E-SE 
winds prevail offshore of Nicaragua northward. Moderate S-SW 
winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in 
mixed long period swell dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon 
trough will freshen through mid-week, diminishing somewhat by the
end of the week. Long period SW swell will reach the Galapagos 
Islands region tonight, and then the coast of Central America Mon
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Marty.

Broad surface ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail north of the 
monsoon trough, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds 
south of the monsoon trough, locally to strong. Seas of 4 to 7 ft
dominate the waters, locally to 8 ft near the strong winds.

For the forecast, trades north of the monsoon trough will 
gradually increase to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient 
tightens. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions is 
forecast through the week.

$$
ERA